"U.S. presidential election: the states whose results will make a difference."

 

The U.S. presidential election is set for Tuesday, November 5, with the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The outcome may hinge on a few critical states known as "swing states."

### Why Swing States Are Important

The United States consists of 50 states, each with a different number of electoral college votes. The candidate who wins a state secures all of its electoral votes, with exceptions for Maine and Nebraska. While polling can often predict outcomes in most states, swing states are unpredictable, making them the focus for both campaigns.

### Current Swing States

Swing states can change over time due to demographic shifts or emerging issues. This year, pivotal issues like abortion rights have surfaced, alongside state-specific concerns. Here are the key swing states in the current election:

1. **Arizona**: Immigration is the primary issue here, especially irregular migration at the Mexico border. Kamala Harris was responsible for addressing this during the Biden administration, and Trump has criticized her on this front. Approximately one-third of Arizona's voters are Hispanic, and the state has 11 electoral votes. Biden won here in the last election.

2. **Georgia**: Biden won Georgia in the last election for the first time since 1992, but the margin was only 2.2%. The state has a significant Black voter population (33%), which could favor Harris. Allegations of election interference by Trump in 2020 are still under legal scrutiny. Georgia has 16 electoral votes.

3. **Michigan**: Home to major auto manufacturers, Biden imposed tariffs to protect against Chinese electric vehicles. A notable portion of Michigan's electorate is Arab-American, and the recent Gaza conflict presents challenges for Harris in securing their support. The state has 15 electoral votes.

4. **Nevada**: Immigration is also a critical issue in this tourism-heavy state, with one-third of the population being Hispanic. Since Biden took office, Nevada's economy has thrived compared to other swing states, despite having the highest unemployment rate. Biden also won Nevada in 2020, which has 6 electoral votes.

5. **North Carolina**: The newest addition to the swing state list, Trump was ahead in polls until Biden withdrew in July. Democrats have only won once in the last 11 elections here, and demographic changes are significant, with the white population dropping from 75% to 60%. Trump won 16 electoral votes from this state in 2020.

6. **Pennsylvania**: This state has faced rising living costs, and it is a leading producer of natural gas due to fracking. Trump supports fracking, while Harris has shifted her stance to favor maintaining it under alternative methods. They faced off in a debate here, and Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes.

7. **Wisconsin**: Known for its razor-thin margins, this state has seen tight races in recent elections, often determined by less than 25,000 votes. Each vote is crucial here, making Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes highly contested. Trump narrowly won the state in 2020.

The results from these states will play a vital role in determining the next President of the United States.

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